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L'Manberg is Doomed (Prediction for the 16th)
First of all, I need to establish allegiances from how I've seen it based on the streams this past week:
Manberg: Schlatt, Dream, George, Sapnap, Technoblade*
Neutral: BBH, Skeppy, Antfrost, Awesamdude, Hbomb, Karl, Ponk, Punz
Pogtopia: Wilbur, Tommy, Tubbo, Fundy, Quackity, Niki, Eret
*As you can also see, I've put Technoblade as the traitor. I know I've seen a bunch of people not wanting it to be him due to a storytelling perspective, but: 1. It's in character for him to do so after the festival arc 2. It's not Tommy and Tubbo. They don't want Manberg to fall into chaos and explode, which is exactly what Dream wants, and he is on Schlatt's side. Techno also wants chaos. 3. He's literally confirmed himself as the traitor on streams several times.
Anyway, based on these allegiances, there's a high chance that Manberg is going to win this war. Dream is scary in the first place considering how fast he can get everyone prepared and kitted out on his team, but the real tide changer is Technoblade. He's spent the past who knows how many hours grinding in preparation for a 30v1 on the server, and he's going to get the opportunity to do that on the 16th. Even if most of the neutral party decides to fight with Pogtopia, getting the opportunity to take Techno out of the fight (he's not gonna die, lets be honest) is going to be difficult. And if Manberg wins and kills everyone, Wilbur is going to attempt to blow it all up again - and I think he'll succeed this time. Chekhov's gun and all.
So, imo, if Manberg is going to survive this ordeal, one of these conditions need to be satisfied: 1. Techno needs to retreat or switch sides again (again, unlikely.) 2. Someone needs to knock some sense into Wilbur and stop his villain arc.
For the first, once again, Techno's going to inevitably kill everybody unless everyone properly prepares and targets him. Which Tommy isn't doing. He's too busy scamming people and making drug cartels in his streams instead of mining diamonds and netherite. Quackity knows about as much MC as Schlatt does sometimes. Niki doesn't fight. Fundy's only preparing contingency plans in case things go south, and Wilbur isn't kitting out from what I've seen either. Everyone here is probably going to get two chops from the Axe of Peace and die instantly.
The second condition is tricky. I love what Wilbur has done with his character so far, honestly, and he's been the start of every single plot line in the dream smp, but he wants to be the one to end it this time. From a roleplay standpoint, Tommy and Quackity have already tried multiple times to stop him for good. It hasn't worked, so I doubt they'd be the ones to possibly snap him out on the 16th. So, I feel like the fate of L'Manberg rests on either Niki, Fundy or Eret. All of them as characters have the motivations and potential to script a really good speech to Wilbur to break him out. I'd love a resolution to Fundy's dad issues, a forgiveness spiel from Eret, and/or some "you're not alone, you do have a home, I'm here for you" thing from Niki.
But what frustrates me the most, and why L'Manberg is doomed, is that Tommy is our main character. He deserves that status, but dammit, he's taking us through the "bad ending" route. You'd think that after the character development of "you're never going to be president, Tommy" and "the only universal language is violence" he'd get his shit together and try to speak Techno's language or be motivated enough to prove Wilbur wrong. From a storytelling perspective, it hurts to see L'Manberg not get a good ending after everything we've seen as viewers. Either way, I'm sure everything that happens is going to make some banger animatics.
[TLDR] Manberg is going to blow up on the 16th, Techno's the traitor (you can't change my mind) and the most frustrating part about it is that Tommy's probably going to let it happen.