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submitted by 11zagy to SQL

2019-20 Season Review: Reddevils 2020 Survey results, Part 2

2019-20 Season Review: Reddevils 2020 Survey results, Part 2
Part 1: Predictions for the season
Results of Last Year's Survey
Contents of this post:
  1. Predictions of last year about various competitions:
    1. League position at New Year
    2. Final Points Tally
    3. Final League Position
    4. Europa League Performance
  2. Player Predictions last Season:
    1. Player of the season
    2. Most Improved player
    3. Breakout Star
  3. Review of Last season's transfers
    1. Ratings for last season's 5 signings
    2. Last year's "Most Important" signing
    3. January Signings
  4. Management Structure
    1. Manager Rating
    2. Play Style
    3. Progress Last Season
    4. Customary Director of Football section
    5. Board/Ownership Approval

“Examination of our past is never time-wasting. Reverberations from the past provide learning rubrics for living today.” - Kilroy J. Oldster, Dead Toad Scrolls

1. Predictions of last year about various competitions:

All of these predictions were made after the end of the transfer window but before the start of official league campaign. So, you don't have to worry about thinking whether the first result against Chelsea last season led to higher expectations. The responses were only taken till 12 hours before kickoff of the first professional game of the season.Also note that this was not an option this year as transfer window ended after the season had already started. How can you ask people to predict how the season would go if there's still the possibility of the team signing Sancho before the window ends.

1.1 League Position at New Year

As naive Homo sapiens all over the world celebrated the start of 2020, Premier league had played 20 game-weeks of football. The table at New Year, disregarding the games played on the New Year day (which was the start of gameweek 21) is shown below, thanks to transfermarkt's interactive tool.
League table at the start of 2020
  • United sat 5th in the table, only 4 points behind Chelsea in 4th. 27% people got it right when they predicted United to be fifth in the table at that point of the season.
  • On the other hand, 53% expected United to be in the top 4 and we were 4 points behind that expectation.
  • As for the points total, we were getting 1.55 points per game which gets us 58.9 points over the course of the season. That would have been 5 points worse off than the worst PL season in United’s history (Moyes, 2013-14).

1.2 Final Points Tally

We ended the league season with 66 points which is 6.93 points lower than the prediction by the sub (6. While 7 points is a significant margin, it’s small enough to counter the arguments about the sub being delusional.
Histogram: Last year's predictions for Final Points tally
  • 125 people expected us to get 65-68 points (12.98%). Out of them only 15 predicted exact points total of 66 points.
  • Not a single person out of 963 responses got the final league position and points total combination right. All 15 of them expected us to finish outside top 4 with that points total, let alone finishing 3rd. 5 expected us to finish fifth, 9 expected us to finish sixth and one expected a seventh placed finish to the season.
  • Two of them did predict us to be 5th on New Year and getting knocked out of Europa league in the semi-finals. So the only thing they got wrong was final league position.

1.3 Final League Position

Histogram: Last year's Predictions for Final League Position
  • 58.7% believed that United would finish top 4, which we eventually did with a brilliant comeback run post Bruno.
  • Only 4.9% believed we would fail to make top 6 altogether, thankfully they were proven wrong.
  • A moment of silence to honour the 3.5% who expected us to break into the top 2. The season was not too kind for them, and let us hope that they can find it within themselves to keep on keeping on.
People who expected us to finish third in the league, predicted a much higher points total than the one we got, 12.36 points higher (78.36) to be exact. Suffice to say, that the very low points total for every team outside top 2 was unexpected for the subreddit.Could it be that the last season has led to a significant re-calibration of people’s thinking regarding correlation of point total and league position. Data scientists say that correcting your prediction model too much based on just the most recent observation is an easy way to wreck your prediction model.Will the sub rue its low predictions for point total compared to the league positions this year when comparing to historical data?

2. Player Predictions Last Season

2.1 Player of the season

Last Year's Predictions for POTS (Best Player)
Pogba was predicted to be the best player last season with 35% of the votes but spent most of the year struggling with injuries. Can’t blame the sub for not being able to predict long term injuries to our players. Bruno of course was at Sporting when this survey was done and would stay there for half a season more. So the player who got the second most votes after Pogba should be considered the sub’s prediction for the best player of the season, and it was Aaron Wan Bissaka with 30% of the votes. Third were Martial and Rashford with 8% votes each. Up to you to decide which player was the best player for United if you exclude Bruno from the conversation, and did the sub get it right?

2.2 Most Improved Player

You also voted on who would improve the most through 2019-2020 season. The first choice was Fred with 35% of the votes while Mctominay came in second with 24% votes. It is easy to forget now how bad Fred’s first season was at United. I think he would be happy to see that many people continued to believe in him and he proved them right for believing in him. I don't like to make judgements in these posts, lest it bring to the fore my own biases. But I think it’s unarguable that Fred has shown massive improvement last season, even if people have doubts regarding whether he improved more than everyone else.

Last year's Predictions for which player would improve the most
In fact it can be argued, not saying its a 100% irrefutable argument, that each of the 5 players who got the most votes in this category improved significantly last season. The players are in decreasing order of Votes:
  • Fred (35%)
  • Mctominay (24%)
  • Martial (12%)
  • Rashford (6%)
  • Greenwood (3%)

2.3 Breakout Star

Important to note there that Greenwood got 72.4% votes in predictions for Breakout star which explains why he didn't get many in the previous category. And I personally think that has in-arguably been proven right. The second top choice for Breakout star was Angel Gomes with 18% of the votes, however he barely played all season and left on a free transfer this summer to join Lille, who in turn sent him on loan to Boavista. It’s all a bit strange. Axel Tuanzebe also got 6.2% of the votes, but he also barely got game time, although due to injuries.

Last year's Prediction for Which Player will have a Break out season
I feel embarrassed, however, that Brandon Williams wasn’t even an option in that category. I expected Laird to be the academy full back most likely to make the step up. I think its fair to say that after Greenwood he was the only player who had his break out season last year.However even Laird got only 3 votes out of 963, so don’t think Williams would have gotten too many for it to have changed the results in any way.

3. Review of Last Season's Transfers

In this year's survey, we asked you to give your informed ratings about how the 5 signings we made last season turned out for us.At the time of last year's survey, we only knew about our summer transfers and you were asked about your opinion on which of the three signings was most important
Lastly, we did ask about future transfer needs which included a question about which position would we need an urgent January transfer in.

3.1 Ratings for last season's 5 signings

Column Chart: Ratings for Last Year's signings
  • Clearly, Bruno Fernandes impressed everyone with his performances so far. The Portuguese Magnifico got an impressive 8.53 rating by the fan base with an overwhelming majority of the users giving him a 9+ rating.
  • Aaron Wan Bissaka was also considered a very successful signing by people with most of the people rating him in the range of 7-9.
  • Dan James and Ighalo did not impress people, but the low financial cost of both deals meant that the judgement was not too harsh on them
  • Maguire got average ratings, likely due to his transfer fee being too high. I make that statement because based on performances alone, ratings from u/JonSnow conducted surveys show that Maguire regularly got a higher rating then Ighalo and James for his performances. So, it is clear that when people judge a signing, they also took the transfer fee into account, which is the right way to judge a signing.
Note: I got comments from the people initially that they thought rating was only out of 4. Which lead to hilarious graphs with two peaks for every player, one small peak in 1-4 region and a later one. Of course, I edited the question as soon as I read those responses, and specifically mentioned that ratings are out of 10. Around 200 responses were already recorded at that point. So, I only gave the ratings based on the next 1100 responses and ignored the first 200.
Note: Double peaks due to confusion in first 200 responses
For transparency, I’ve also given the double peak graphs which look like something you get after chromatography/spectrometry. The Bruno one is hilarious and proves exactly what happened there. There are only 3 peaks: 4, 9 and 10. The [4] rating peak has 194 responses which confirms my assertion that it was only the first 200 responses that had those problems.
Bruno Fernandes double peak magnified.
Clear from the Bruno graph above that people who though rating was from 1-4 overwhelmingly gave a 4 rating. Meanwhile later on people overwhelmingly gave a rating of 9 or 10.

3.2 Most Important (Summer) Signing

Last summer, fans chose Aaron Wan Bissaka as the most important signing with 51,8% of the votes, with Harry Maguire coming in second with 47.1% of the votes. Of course, Bruno and Odion Ighalo were not yet a part of United so the only competition for those two was the Welshman Dan James. Dan James got only 5 votes out of 963, so don't think expectations were high from him even before the season began.
Given the Player ratings for these three, seems like Aaron Wan Bissaka was the best signing of the lot. Considering that he had close to zero backup for his position for large part of the season (especially after the sale of Ashley Young), he was an extremely crucial signing for us.
On the other hand though, Harry Maguire played every single minute of our Premier league campaign and was the European player with highest minutes played last season. With Tuanzebe being injured for most of the season alongside Jones and Bailly, Maguire being an everpresent feature in the backline as well as his leadership as the Manchester United captain can be used as an argument to say that despite him not being as good a signing as AWB, he was probably the more important one.
Which of AWB and Maguire was the most important summer signing last season? Share your thoughts on this in the comment section.

3.3 January Signings

While we did not know at the time of last survey which players we will buy in January, however that doesn't mean we have no data related to what we wanted from our potential January signings. 49% of the responders last year felt we needed a CM in January with 7% votes for an attacking midfielder.

Last year's Survey: Opinion on January Transfer needs
Important to remember that at that time we were yet to use a proper 10 in a competitive game and had played with a 3 man midfield till that point in all games except in preseason friendlies. So in a way, we did predict the need for the third midfielder in the team to replace the outgoing Herrera. Also important to note that the second most chosen option was DM with 24% votes. So, about 80% of the people felt we needed a midfielder in January to improve the team.
Striker was third priority with 11% of the votes. Odion Ighalo was signed as a backup striker after we failed to complete a transfer for Haaland.
Seems like Ole did what the sub wanted in the January window, but with a bit of a twist.

4. Management Structure

What I mean by the management structure of the club is:
  • Manager and the Coaching Staff
  • Director of Football
  • The Glazers and The Board

4.1 Manager Rating

Majority of the sub are satisfied by the performance of our manager and club legend, Ole Gunnar Solskjær.
Histogram: Manager Rating for Season 2019-2020
  • The manager got an impressive average rating of 7.158. I think it is a good metric to see that the sub as a whole approves of Ole as a manager for United in this moment.
  • Less than 4% gave him a rating of 4 or less. So most of the people didn't think that he was doing poorly (5.5 would be the average rating)
  • Overwhelming majority (82.56%) of the responses were in the range of [6,8].
  • More "higher than 8" ratings than "less than 6" ratings.

4.2 Play Style

A slight majority (51.7%) consider us a counter attacking team.
Description of Play Style
I want to look at these subgroups and see how much does the perception of play-style impacts the optimism of fans about the coming season. Only three of these subgroups are big enough for the data to mean something, so those are the ones in focus:
  • No Clear Style [+ a mess (1 response) + No clear style (1 response)]
  • Counter attacking system
  • Possession oriented slow progression

Table: Change in Predictions based on perception of play-style
There is barely any difference between the "counter attacking system" and "Possession oriented slow progression" groups. Probably because the team is seen as a combination of both depending on the kind of opposition we face.

4.3 Progress Last season

Histogram: Ratings for progress last season
Mean Rating = 7.173516
Only 9.06% gave a rating less than 6, which would be the less than average (5.5) ratings. So people were overwhelmingly satisfied by the progress over the course of last season.

Scatter Plot: Approval of Ole vs opinion on Progress over last season
Red lines depict mean for the two variable.
Blue lines denote the median for the two variables.

4.4 Customary Director of Football section

I'm just going to give you the results for the same question in 2019 and 2020.
Reddevils 2019 Survey: DOF Expectations
Reddevils 2020 Survey: DOF Expectations
This is like watching the hope of thousands of people die out over the course of a year. Its shameful and its shambolic, and it will be made clear when the results from transfer come out in the next segment, including ratings for transfer window of summer 2020.

4.5 Board/Ownership Approval


Histogram: Glazers Approval
  • 706 fans (53.7%) gave a straight 1 rating
  • Only 11.72% users gave a rating higher than 3 to Glazers.
  • Only 5.6% users gave a rating higher than 4

FUCK THE GLAZERS

FUCK THE DAILY MAIL
FUCK 2020
submitted by JonSnowAzorAhai to reddevils

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