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LKYSPP: COVID-19: How will increased US-China tensions implicate the region?
SUMMARY OF SPEAKERS' OPENING STATEMENTS (word for word transcript up to around 20min mark)
- "Strategic Pause": US and China should put competition on hold, focus on cooperating against Covid-19, a common enemy. But the opposite has happened. Covid-19 has aggravated US-China geopolitical contest.
- US has made a fundamental geopolitical mistake in launching into competition with China without a comprehensive grand strategy.
- US unaware of the fundamental structural strengths China has developed e.g. CCP meritocracy
- US has developed structural problems. Income of the bottom few decreasing. America becoming a plutocracy.
- US inflexibility: rigidity of its grand strategy. US should stop fighting in the MidEast if it wants to focus on China
- Decoupling: both sides will move to decouple their economies, reduce interdependence. But full decoupling impossible
- Covid-19 has created a shift in the US-China economic relationship, away from the superficiality of the trade war. Now more attention will be paid to diminishing the centrality of China within the global value chain. Not just by US; Japan and EU also noticing that overdependence on China (medical devices, automobile supply chain) exacerbates vulnerability.
- Deglobalization of people-to-people movement: Students shifting from US to elsewhere; workers in Europe etc. This will affect China (talent pool etc.)
- Technological competition: emergence of two separate, decoupled technological ecosystems (US and China)
- Financial disintegration: decoupling of US-listed Chinese companies, US investors in Chinese market.
- "Triple whammy": US-China trade war + upcoming US Presidential elections + Covid-19 pandemic
- Larger structural dynamic of shifting balance of power from west to east. US identified China as a strategic competitor espousing inimical values. Must be confronted
- Blame Game: In US and Europe there will be immense pressures to assign blame and seek accountability over Covid-19. Will take on a very impassioned character due to death toll and economic impact. Huge anger directed at source of pandemic. Republicans and Trump will likely deflect blame to China for covering up the pandemic. Even Joe Biden will have trouble sidestepping this.
- Danger of blame game is that not war; but rather it will make relations so tense and trust so low that a larger conflict may be sparked
- Southeast Asia being pressured to choose between US and China. Whether to assign blame and who to blame. ASEAN countries repeatedly said they do not want to choose. TPP, AIIB, Huawei 5G show that this is increasingly difficult. Majority of ASEAN will likely give China the benefit of the doubt, will not support a US-led probe/investigation.
- The main issue for most in ASEAN is not whether China covered things up but which societies did best in saving lives and containing the pandemic
- Another issue is who will recover faster economically. Don't underestimate US' economic resilience and technological ingenuity. But if China outperforms US economically after outbreak, its narrative of being the wave of the future will gain ground.