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Pandemic 'stay at home stocks' like Peloton, Zoom, Roku tank on Pfizer vaccine news—is it an overreaction?

Pfizer on Monday morning announced that its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, developed in partnership with BioNTech, was more than 90% effective in studies and that it could distribute 50 million doses before the end of this year, and 1.3 billion doses in 2021.
The good news immediately sent U.S. markets broadly higher—especially airline stocks, energy names, bank stocks, in-person entertainment like theme parks, and real estate—except for a slew of key names that have seen huge gains during the pandemic, boosted by prolonged work-from-home trends.
Those “stay-at-home stocks” were hit hard.
Peloton (PTON) fell by as much as 25%; Logitech (LOGI) fell 19%; Zoom Video (ZM) dropped 17%; CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell 11%; Chewy (CHWY) fell 10%; Roku (ROKU) sunk 7%; Netflix (NFLX) fell 6%; Slack (WORK) was down 4%.
The market thinking appears to be: a widely available vaccine will prompt a return to normalcy, which will mean the end of the hockey-stick run for products and services you use in your home.
But that reductive logic doesn’t apply equally well to every stay-at-home name. Rather, the post-pandemic prospects for each business have to be examined on a case-by-case basis.

Remote work won’t abruptly end with a vaccine

Since early on in the pandemic, analysts and experts have predicted that some form of remote work is here to stay—after all, it was a trend already growing before the pandemic. If that’s the case, then many companies are going to continue to use enterprise tools like Zoom and Slack, even once offices reopen. Whether workers are in their office or at home, teams that use Slack aren’t going to just stop using it.
In Zoom’s case, the stock has also become extremely expensive. It trades at more than 800 times earnings, so it was arguably due for a big correction. The vaccine news provided an excuse for firms to take some profit and move into other names, like the battered stocks set to take off now that a vaccine is imminent. (As for Slack, increased competitive threat from Microsoft Teams is also contributing to its slide.)
The same “here to stay” thinking with the enterprise names can apply broadly to streaming services like Netflix and Roku: just because people might return to their offices doesn’t mean they will stop streaming at home.
In Roku’s case, the dip makes a little more sense, since Roku relies on ad revenue from ads on its home screen, and advertisers might indeed shuffle their budgets away from Roku if they think time spent on streaming will drop significantly. For Netflix, which makes its revenue from subscriptions (it doesn’t sell ad space or sell user data), the stock dive would only make sense if you think a significant number of subscribers will cancel Netflix after the pandemic.
Peloton is its own case: the exercise-bike company took off early in the pandemic amid staggering demand for its bikes, creating wait times of 5-10 weeks on orders. As the stock surged, some analysts warned of a “pull-forward in demand,” the idea that Peloton cannot sustain this level of sales and would be punished later on because shareholder expectations would get too high. But in its fourth-quarter earnings report in September, Peloton had its first profit and showed massive continued demand for its bikes, making the bear case look wrong. (Meanwhile, Netflix, in contrast, actually did see in Q3, and explicitly identified, a pull-forward in demand from the first half of 2020 that hurt its subscription adds.) Once gyms fully reopen across the country, will Peloton bike sales really dry up?
On the other hand, Peloton stock, like Zoom, got extremely expensive (trading at a 15x P/E ratio), so it was due for a correction as soon as there was any indication that the end of the pandemic is in sight.

Buy online, pick up in store

One good example of a trend accelerated by the pandemic that is generally expected not to reverse is e-commerce and the rise of BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) for brick-and-mortar retail.
Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Urban Outfitters, Restoration Hardware, and Dick’s Sporting Goods are just some of the physical retail names seeing enormous e-commerce gains, so much so that the share of U.S. retail spending attributed to e-commerce has surged to 16.1%, up from 10.8% one year ago.
Those chains have also seen huge customer adoption of curbside pickup. Dick’s Sporting Goods president Lauren Hobart said in August that Dick’s “anticipated originally that we would see a large drop-off [in curbside] when the stores reopened, but that is not the case.” Many retail analysts predict that even after the pandemic, consumers will stick with their new behavior and shop online, for home delivery or curbside pickup.
Whole Foods CEO John Mackey disagrees—he thinks some people will stick to online ordering, but that it won’t remain the norm for most. Even if he’s right, what that creates is a hybrid landscape for physical retail and physical grocery.
The same applies to remote work: even if a large number of workers return to the office, many more workers than before the pandemic are going to keep working from home, which should be good for enterprise names like Zoom, Slack, and CrowdStrike.
Wharton professor Mauro Guillen writes in his new book, “2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything,” that beyond the pandemic we should expect a “hybrid model” of working that allows for remote-work a few days a week, and continued automation of service warehouses.
“Most of what I hear from companies right now is that we're going to go to a hybrid model,” Guillen told Yahoo Finance in August. “So, a majority of American employees who are working from home now, they're saying, ‘Yes, I would like to have a remote component in my work week, but I would like to also go to the office.’”
Logitech CEO Bracken Darrell sounds a similar tune. He insists that the recent sales boom for Logitech’s computer accessories can’t be totally chalked up the pandemic, but to four “secular” shifts: “One is video going everywhere, whether it’s offices or webcams. The second one is the rise of gaming as a professional sport, and as a bigger and bigger spectator sport; it’ll be the biggest collection of sports in the world one day. The third one is working from anywhere. The fourth is everybody creating their own content and streaming it, which lends itself well to our microphones. All four of those are long-term secular trends.”
But of course, Darrell has to hope so for his business. The other companies labeled “stay at home names” during the pandemic are all hoping their momentum continues, even once we get a vaccine.
submitted by Brothanogood to stocks

Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, October 29, 2020. Please enjoy!

PsychoMarket Recap - Thursday, October 29, 2020
Stocks rose today, reversing course after being deep in the red the last two days. Market participants digested a record increase in third-quarter GDP for the US, a better-than-expected weekly unemployment report, new coronavirus restrictions in the US and Europe and a slew of corporate earnings for massive companies.
The Nasdaq (QQQ) rose 1.75% today, the best performing of the major indices. The S&P 500 (SPY) finished 1.05% up and the Dow Jones (DIA) finished 0.44%.
After coming off one of the worst quarters in US history, the economy rebounded, growing at its fastest pace ever. Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the total goods and services produced from July to September of this year, expanded at a 33.1% annualized pace, according to the report by the Department of Commerce. The gain came after a 31.4% plunge in the second quarter and was better than the 32% estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The previous record was the post-World War II 16.7% surge in the first quarter of 1950.
Today, the US Department of Commerce released its weekly unemployment report, showing that another 751,000 individuals filed initial jobless claims, better than the 770,000 estimated by analysts. Continuing claims, which refer to individuals that are currently receiving unemployment benefits who filed for unemployment benefits at least two weeks ago, was 7.75 million, slightly better than the 7.77 million expected. According to Yahoo Finance, this report represents the ninth-straight week initial unemployment claims have remained below 1 million and continuing claims below 10 million, a key indicator that the economy is recovering, though not as fast as many would like.
In Europe, countries are still struggling to contain the recent surge in coronavirus infections. Both France and Germany announced renewed lockdowns spanning for about the next month, though the restrictions stopped short of the draconian measures announced earlier on during the pandemic. In the US, the seven-day average of daily new cases rose to a record 70,000 as of yesterday, according to data compiled by the Washington Post.
On the vaccine front, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said he believed it would take until at least January for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to authorize a COVID-19 vaccine. There are five companies (Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (ELY), and BioNTech (BNTX)) in the final stages of study for a coronavirus vaccine, with Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. having fully enrolled their trials, Fauci said.
Some analysts consider the recent pull-back in the stock market a healthy inevitability, given the strong rally that took many stocks to all-time highs earlier in the Month. Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients, “Markets have been baking in a lot of optimism: that the pandemic was under control, that the economy was healing, and that things would be back to something approaching normal in 2021. Those assumptions were always optimistic, though, and what we are seeing now is a reality-based repricing. As such, this drop is both necessary and healthy. Markets should reflect the most likely future path, not the most optimistic, and that is where we are headed.”
  • Today is going to be a huge day in earnings:
    • Amazon (AMZN) reported better-than-expected earnings.
      • EPS of $12.37 vs $7.41 estimate
      • Revenue of $96.1 billion vs $92.7 billion expected
    • Apple (AAPL) reported better-than-expected earnings
      • EPS of $0.73 vs $0.70 estimate
      • Revenue of $64.7 billion vs $63.7 billion estimate.
    • Alphabet (GOOG) reported better-than-expected earnings and went up 5% in after-hours
      • EPS of $16.40 vs $11.42 expected
      • Revenue of $38.01 billion vs $35.35 billion
    • Facebook (FB) reported better than expected earnings.
      • EPS of $2.71 vs $1.91 estimate
      • Revenue of $21.5 billion vs 19.6 billion estimate.
      • Daily Active Users of 1.82 billion vs 1.78 billion expected
    • Twitter (TWTR) missed user-growth expectations and as a result, the stock dropped 9% in after-hours.
      • EPS of $0.19 cents vs $0.06 estimate
      • Revenue of $936 million vs $777.15 million estimate
      • Daily Active User of 187 million vs 195.2 million estimate
  • Disney (DIS) is closing its Disneyland Paris theme park at the end of the day as France initiates a fresh round of restrictions meant to curb a rising number of new Covid-19 cases.
  • Pinterest (PINS) exploded after beating-earnings up 26% at the time of writing
  • Pinterest (PINS) with several price target increases from Barclays, Wedbush, and Robert W. Baird with average price target of $68. Stock gapped up 30% after earnings yesterday
  • After the rally post-earnings report, $PINS rocketed up 35% adding $10 billion in market cap to a company that was valued at roughly that much when 2020 began. Crazy
  • The largest deal in luxury is back on after New York's famed jeweler Tiffany agreed to a slightly reduced offering price from LVMH in Paris. LVMH will now pay $131.50 for each Tiffany share putting the total price tag at $15.8 billion, down from the $16.2 billion that was first offered earlier this year.
  • Shopify (SHOP) destroyed earnings!
    • EPS: $1.13 vs $0.53 estimates (113% surprise!)
    • Revenue: $767M vs $636
  • Penn National Gaming (PENN) with a pretty nice surprise. Stock opened around 5% higher but lost the gains throughout the session. Stock has been pulling back stteply since hitting all-time high earlier in the month.
    • EPS $0.93 vs $0.48 estimate (93% surprise!)
    • Revenue: $1.13B vs 954M
  • Tupperware (TUP) upgraded by DA Davidson from $30 to $46 at BUY.
  • Penumbra (PEN) with price target increase from Smith Barney Citigruop from $264 to $270. The stock gapped up today 13%
  • ETSY price target increased by Wedbush from $155 to $165 at OUTPERFROM
  • UPS with price target increase:
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) $152 to $184 at OVERWEIGHT
    • Deutsche Bank (DB) from $195 to $201 at BUY
  • ServiceNow $NOW with several price increases from Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Raymond James, and Piper Sandler today after beating earnings. Very notable
  • Bunge (BG) with several price target increases:
    • Credit Suisse from $60 to $67 at OUTPERFORM
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) from $50 to $66 at EQUAL-WEIGHT
  • Viking Therapeutics with price target of $27 at STRONG-BUY by Raymond James. Very notable because the stock is only $5.60 right now.
  • Exxon Mobil (XOM) said it plans to cut 1,900 employees in the U.S., as company seeks to reduce costs to fend off lower demand for its products during the pandemic. In comparison renewable energy stocks have been flying this year "To thine own self be true" - William Shakespeare
submitted by psychotrader00 to StockMarket

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