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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 23rd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning November 23rd, 2020.

Stocks may continue to struggle Thanksgiving week amid Covid-19 outbreaks - (Source)

Stocks could continue to struggle with the twin themes of the spreading virus and a potentially robust recovery, once a vaccine is deployed next year.
In the coming week, the restrictions the spreading virus is imposing on the economy will be clear, when many Americans choose to stay at home over the Thanksgiving Day holiday and partake in much smaller celebrations.
“On the Covid side, there will be more lockdowns, but I think the message is loud and clear. ‘People: Don’t be cavalier around Thanksgiving,’” said Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat. Thanksgiving traditionally kicks off the holiday shopping season, an important time of the year for the economy which could be hobbled by Covid. The U.S. reported 182,000 new cases Thursday.
Lee said the market will continue to feel the push pull of the drag from the pandemic against the promise of recovery, seen in the rebound of cyclical stocks. Cyclical sectors industrials and materials were both up about 1% for the week, and financials were up a half percent. But tech and communications, both big tech and growth sectors that benefited from the stay-at-home trade, were lower.
“I think stocks are kind of consolidating and maybe it’s going to go on for a couple of days,” Lee said. He added that stocks could start to perk up late in the week, and investors are expecting stocks to head higher into year end. “The cyclicals have held up like champs, and the small caps, and value have been really holding up,” Lee said.
Stocks were mixed in the past week, with the Dow and S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 was the star performer, with a gain of 2.4% for the week. The Russell is up 16% since the beginning of October.
The S&P shot up sharply on Nov. 9 when Pfizer announced its vaccine as 95% effective, but it never regained that intraday high of 3,645 and has since traded in a sideways pattern. The S&P 500 closed at 3,557 Friday, down 0.8% for the week.
JPMorgan economists warned Friday that the “winter will be grim” and they forecast that the restrictions due to the virus will drag on the economy, resulting in a negative first quarter. They expect a strong rebound in the second and third quarter, once the vaccine is distributed and an anticipated fiscal stimulus program takes hold.
“It’s hard for some investors to look over that period and see the recovery. I think this is where we are now,” said Katie Nixon, Northern Trust Wealth Management CIO. She said the concern is how much damage the restrictions will do as the virus spreads at a record rate. “This is happening and with exponential force right now. It’s just shocking to see the numbers and how state and local authorities are trying to deal with it in a variety of ways.”
But Nixon said she’s very positive on the market longer term, and the economy will heal once the vaccine becomes available. She said fiscal stimulus from Washington would help.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell signaled he would again discuss a package with Democrats, and that funds that were being used for Fed programs could be diverted to a fiscal package.
The Treasury Thursday indicated it would not continue five of the Fed’s emergency program from when they expire at year end, surprising some in the markets. The Fed objected, but the markets took the development in stride, as traders expect the programs to be reinstated if financial conditions warrant it.
The Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting Wednesday afternoon, and that could be important as traders are watching to see if the central bank reveals any detail of discussions on potential changes to its asset buying program. There is widespread speculation the Fed could tweak its $80 billion Treasury buying program at the December meeting to include more longer duration notes and bonds, a move that should hold down already low long-term rates.
Also in the week ahead, there is some key data including personal income and spending and durable goods on Wednesday. Consumer confidence is Tuesday and consumer sentiment is released Wednesday. There are also a few Fed speakers, who will be watched closely for any comments on the expiring programs.
Any word on fiscal stimulus talks will get market attention, though there is skepticism anything will before next year. If a package is not passed, the unemployment benefits going to 12 million Americans will end at the end of December, and mortgage forbearance will end. Bank of America economists said if there is no stimulus package to prevent these things, there would be a 1.5 percentage point drag on first quarter growth.
“The biggest thing we need to do is prevent bankruptcies and prevent unemployment from rising,” Nixon said. She said the labor market has stalled, and it is important to avoid the deep scarring from bankruptcies.
She said it is not too late for investors to get in on the rotation into growth,and some investors are worried they didn’t get in on time. “Value has so much to go to catch up on growth,” she said.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

The Thanksgiving Trade

Trading around Thanksgiving has a bullish tendency perhaps buoyed by the “holiday spirit.” First published in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 34 times in 35 years. The only S&P 500 decline was in 1964.
Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 33 years since 1987, there have been 9 declines and 24 advances. The best short-term trade appears to be getting long into any weakness on Monday or Tuesday of Thanksgiving week and selling into any subsequent rally by the end of Thanksgiving week. But as COVID-19 cases are on the rise again remain nimble as exogenous events like Greece’s debt crisis in 2011 or 2018’s fourth quarter rout can cancel Thanksgiving on Wall Street.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also of note is the change in the yearend rally. Prior to 1987, from the close of trading on the Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend, the S&P 500 rallied only 20 times in 35 years. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, S&P 500 has logged gains in 25 of 33 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend.

5 Noteworthy Charts To Watch As Stocks Soar

First, the big economic data point this week was retail sales. Although the headline number was a little light at 0.3% versus an expected 0.5% gain month-over-month, it still hit another new all-time high along the way (source: US Census Bureau). “The miss could be a sign the consumer is finally starting to slow amid record COVID-19 cases and more restrictions, with restaurant sales dipping for the first time since April,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
The good news is retail sales has hit a new high for five consecutive months, and the economy has never been in a recession after three consecutive new highs—yet another sign the recession may be over, even if it hasn’t been called officially.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How strong has the recent rally been? Well, as of Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 Index was on pace to have its second-best month of November ever. November isn’t over yet of course, but this could open the door to a potential late-month snap back lower after a huge move, which would be perfectly normal and healthy.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After Monday’s record close, the S&P 500 now has 24 new all-time high closes in 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The surge after the election was historic in many ways. The number of stocks in the S&P 500 recently making new monthly highs caught our attention. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, previous surges in new monthly highs opened the door for near-term weakness, but the weakness was a nice buying opportunity. In fact, a year after previous major breadth thrusts saw stocks higher every single time, not something we want to ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 recently were above their 200-day moving average—another sign of impressive participation in this recent market strength. Once again, future results would suggest this extreme strength is a sign of potential future strong performance and weakness could be used as a buying opportunity.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales Slow

The October Retail Sales report missed expectations this morning on both a headline and core basis. In addition to the weaker than expected reading for October, September's report was also revised lower.
Breadth in this month’s report was also negative for the first time since April. Of the thirteen sectors tracked in the report, just five showed growth while eight declined. On the positive side, Non-Store retail was the main bright spot with m/m growth of 3.11%. That’s the last thing every traditional retailer wants to hear and could be indicative of another wave of retrenchment on the part of consumers as the weather gets colder and case counts rise. Electronics and Appliances also reported strong sales growth likely aided by the launch of the iPhone 12. On the downside, Clothing and Sporting Goods both saw m/m declines of over 4%, while sales at General Merchandise retailers dropped 1.1%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just-released B.I.G. Tips report, we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

Finally A New High for Small Caps

It only took over two years, but the Russell 2000 finally put in a new all-time high on Friday. As shown in the charts below, Friday marked the first all-time high on a closing basis since August 31st, 2018; a total of 553 trading days between highs. As shown in the second chart below, since the index began trading in the late 80's, that makes for the third-longest stretch without a new high. The only two longer periods were from March 10th, 2000 through April 2nd, 2004 and from July 16, 2007 through April 26th, 2011. Both of those streaks were nearly twice as long as the past two years' streak.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Russell 2000 is up another 2% to more fresh highs this morning, but the recent move to new highs has left the index very overbought. As shown in the snapshot of our Trend Analyzer below, at Friday's close small caps like the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) are two of the most overbought major index ETFs after having seen some of the strongest performance over the past five days. Granted, as other large-cap indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) were quicker to return to all-time highs earlier this year making them some of the stronger performers on the year, small caps have been laggards on a year to date basis. In other words, this year's weakest performers have been a factor in recent strength. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A Month for the Ages

Just when you think you've seen it all from this market, a month like November comes around. Stock returns so far this month have been extraordinary, and what makes the gains even more impressive is the fact that they came not from a starting point of a depressed bear-market environment but instead from a level that was already pretty close to record highs. Within the Russell 3000, which encompasses stocks with market caps of all sizes, the average MTD performance of stocks in the index is a gain of over 15%. Even in the large-cap S&P 500, the average stock in the index has rallied more than 13.5% so far this month! Keep in mind too that these are just averages, and plenty of individual stocks are up multiples of that.
In the Russell 3000, there are 51 stocks that are up over 50% so far in November. We don't have enough room to list them all, but the first table below shows the twenty top performers. Topping the list is Five Prime Therapeutics (FPRX), which has rallied more than 349% this month! That's years worth of returns in sixteen days. Behind FPRX, there are two other stocks - Cooper Standard (CPS) and Revlon (REV) - which have both more than doubled. Many of the names listed below are unknown small caps, but a handful of names like Transocean (RIG), Coty (COTY), and Lyft (LYFT) are very well known.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the large-cap S&P 500, the gains haven't been as gaudy but are still impressive. As shown in the table below, the twenty top-performing stocks in the index are all up over 30% MTD. One sector well represented on this list is Energy with eight of the twenty names listed coming from that sector.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While just about every stock in the S&P 500 is up this month, 18 stocks have managed to trade lower. Of these 18 stocks, only two - Hanesbrands (HBI) and NortonLifeLock (NLOK) - are down more than 5%. What's really interesting about this list, however, is that while Energy dominates the list of S&P 500 winners, no sector dominates the list of losers as it's a diverse set of stocks spanning ten of the eleven GICS sectors. The only sector not represented is Industrials.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Long Term Averages Taken Out

With equities having another strong day yesterday, a large number of stocks closed above their 200-DMAs. For the S&P 500 as a whole, nearly 90% of the index closed above their long term moving averages. That was the highest percentage for the broad index since July 3rd, 2014. As equities pullback today, that reading is lower at 86.56% as of this writing which is still in the 90th percentile of readings since 1990.
As shown in the charts below, the same applies on a sector by sector basis as well. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials, Industrials, and Materials all currently boast readings above 90%. For Consumer Discretionary, there have been a few similarly high readings since the start of the month, and these have all been the highest on record since at least 1990. For other sectors, recent readings have similarly been at multi-year highs. Levels for Communication Services, Health Care, and Materials, are all their highest since September or late August, but for others, it has been much longer since we saw similar readings. For example, the last time Industrials saw as high of a percentage of stocks above their 200-DMA was way back in May of 2013, and for Consumer Staples, the last higher reading was in October of 2013. The sector that has the weakest number of stocks above their 200-DMAs is unsurprisingly Energy. Whereas yesterday exactly half of the stocks in the Energy sector finished above their 200-DMA, today less than a third remain above that level. Granted, that is far better than the end of October when not even 5% were above.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show a list of the S&P 500 Energy sector's components showing how far each is above/below their 200-day moving average as well as the MTD and YTD performance. Baker Hughes (BKR), Halliburton (HAL), and Marathon (MPC) are all the most elevated, currently above their 200-DMAs by double-digit percentages. TechnipFMC (FTI) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV) have been the top performers in the sector, but they both still sit a few percentage points below their 50-DMAs even after rallies of more than 40% this month. The only Energy sector stock to have fallen in what has been a remarkably strong month is Cabot Oil and Gas (COG), though it is one of the best performers YTD with a decline of just 2.4%. Still, its recent decline leaves it as one of the furthest below its 200-DMA.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Stocks Flying Around the Globe

Since bottoming on the last trading day of November, the S&P 500 (SPY) has had a banner month so far this November rising 10.61% month to date. While there is still nearly two weeks left in the month, SPY is on pace for its best month since April. That is also in the top 1% of monthly moves of the past two decades. Other than April, the only month of the past 20 years that has seen a larger gain was October of 2011.
Looking across the various country ETFs in our Global Macro Dashboard, there similarly have been some massive moves so far this month. Several of these have risen over 20% and only two, India (INDA) and China (MSHI), have risen by single-digit percentages. Spain (EWP), Italy (EWI), France (EWQ), Mexico (EWW), Norway (ENOR), and the UK (EWU) are all on pace for their best month of the past twenty years. Every other country ETF is also seeing monthly moves in the top decile of their respective 20-year ranges. For some of these, like Singapore (EWS) or Switzerland (EWL), this month has been the best month in over a decade.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 11.23.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 11.23.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Tuesday 11.24.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 11.24.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 11.25.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 11.25.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Thursday 11.26.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.)

Thursday 11.26.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THANKSGIVING DAY.)

Friday 11.27.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 11.27.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Best Buy Co., Inc. $119.14

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.73 per share on revenue of $10.90 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.93 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 53.10% with revenue increasing by 11.63%. Short interest has decreased by 7.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $90.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,115 contracts of the $125.00 call expiring on Friday, November 27, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $35.73

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, November 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.18 per share on revenue of $139.37 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 50.00% with revenue increasing by 52.21%. Short interest has increased by 43.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 78.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 117.9% above its 200 day moving average of $16.40. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,443 contracts of the $35.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. $58.51

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $2.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 73.08% with revenue increasing by 13.65%. Short interest has decreased by 6.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.8% above its 200 day moving average of $41.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,884 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $94.97

Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.15 per share on revenue of $6.11 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.48% with revenue increasing by 6.33%. Short interest has decreased by 28.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $88.07. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 5,278 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Daqo New Energy Corp. $41.71

Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, November 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $124.60 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.88% with revenue increasing by 48.49%. Short interest has increased by 215.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 66.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.8% above its 200 day moving average of $21.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 27, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,142 contracts of the $130.00 put and 2,069 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Medtronic, Inc. $110.16

Medtronic, Inc. (MDT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, November 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.78 per share on revenue of $7.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.88 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.46% with revenue decreasing by 8.51%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.9% above its 200 day moving average of $99.36. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,800 contracts of the $67.50 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Twist Bioscience Corporation $115.56

Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 23, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.71 per share on revenue of $22.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.66) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 26.04% with revenue increasing by 44.26%. Short interest has decreased by 19.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 74.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 116.2% above its 200 day moving average of $53.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.

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Autodesk, Inc. $254.89

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.95 per share on revenue of $938.89 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.91 to $0.97 per share on revenue of $930.00 million to $945.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 33.80% with revenue increasing by 11.41%. Short interest has decreased by 18.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.9% above its 200 day moving average of $214.29. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 510 contracts of the $260.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.3% move in recent quarters.

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Baozun Inc. $41.92

Baozun Inc. (BZUN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Monday, November 23, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $253.00 million to $260.00 million. Short interest has decreased by 9.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $34.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,009 contracts of the $28.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 9.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.5% move in recent quarters.

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Deere & Company $258.56

Deere & Company (DE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Wednesday, November 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.39 per share on revenue of $7.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.51 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 54% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 35.05% with revenue decreasing by 26.94%. Short interest has decreased by 53.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 31.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 45.3% above its 200 day moving average of $177.93. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,280 contracts of the $235.00 put expiring on Friday, November 27, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks

How I turned Altınordu, the Bilbao of Turkey, into the best team in the country.

How I turned Altınordu, the Bilbao of Turkey, into the best team in the country.
My friends in the real world have no real interest in my FM achievements, so I'm here to tell you all about my best save to date. Buckle in.
In seven seasons I took Altınordu, a team lounging in the second division of Turkish Football to the champions of the country, breaking the successive two team domination between Fenerbahce and Galatasaray for a decade. The catch? Much like Athletic Bilbao, Altınordu are only allowed to sign home-grown players. So... here's my story.
It all started when I came across this article in The Guardian."Game changer: how Altinordu aim to dominate Turkish football with homegrown players". They'd been credited for producing top players such as Cenzig Under, and I was in-between saves and was considering a Youth Development challenge. Altınordu seemed perfect, a club with a vision of developing superstars, and in a league I knew nothing about and with seemingly both hands tied behind their back in only being able to sign Turkish nationals.
At first, it was humble beginnings. I found my self predicted for a mid-table finish in the Turkish 1.League, with an average squad and little transfer budget for wheeling & dealing. My initial transfer strategy was to buy players I knew I could sell on for profit, which was also part of my club vision.
Through some some miracle, and with the help of star striker Kemal Ruzgar & amazing youth prospect Ravil Tagir holding down the back (seriously, this guy was 16 and was the first name on my team sheet. He is an absolute must sign if you can get him) we managed to scrape ourselves into 2nd place, and landed promotion to the Turkish Super League, losing out closely to who would soon become our bitter rivals Adana D.S.
Promotion from the Turkish 1. League 2019/2020
Sadly, after taking stock of my squad and the money I had available to me (not much), I soon realised that survival in the Turkish Super League was going to be almost impossible. I decided to cash in on some young prospects that had come through our youth intake (selling them to the PSG of Turkey, Galatasaray) in order to try and buy some more experienced players that could come straight into the first team and help us with our battle for survival. Notable signings include the, at the time, eye-watering signing of Muhammed Sengezer for 925k, the second most reliable man between the stick I have ever witnessed in a game of FM.
However, as the season continued I realised we had one issue. Kemal Ruzgar, my star number 10 from last season just wasn't cut out for Super League Football. A real Cameron Jerome type. My chronic lack of goals (30 from 34 games) left us 3 points adrift of safety and relegated back to Turkey's 1. League obscurity. The only silver lining was bitter rivals Adana D.S. also took the plunge with us. We were blood brothers. Special shoutout to Bld.Erzurumspor who went from playoff promotion the season before to third place and qualifying for the Euro Cup II after somehow only conceding 28 goals.
Relegation from the Turkish Super League 2020/2021
To add salt to the wound, the relegation also kickstarted a mass exodus of talent from the club. My beloved Ravil Tagir, a son to me now after playing almost every game for the past two seasons. Gone*. Muhammed Sengezer, signed just the season before. Gone. All of my best players were taken from me. But Turkey's Super League prize money is quite an odd one, with teams being awarded just over 300k for a win, and around 150k for a draw. This had meant, after the max exodus of players and my 7 wins & 11 draws I had amassed quite the "war chest" of 4 million to spend. Big money for a team like me. So I went to work rebuilding the squad, a phoenix from the ashes.
*Ravil Tagir's selling has however funded most of my seasons, as he is sold about every two seasons to a bigger club and I just get that sweet sweet percentage of sale money.
The exodus & rebirth of Altınordu 2021/2022
In came Nurullah Aslan, the most reliable man between the sticks I've seen in FM (that's right Sengezer you traitor), the double Burak billing of Yesilay (striker and now a club Icon) and Kapacak, the Dani Alves of Turkey at RWB. Most importantly came Eslem Ozturk, possibly the greatest signing of them all. He can dribble, shoot, pass, tackle. He is a machine in the middle of the park. Little did he know that four years later he would be lifting the Turkish Super League as captain of Altınordu after 164 appearances and increasing his value by tenfold. Truly the most remarkable player I've ever had in my FM playing history. I want to name my children after him.
All of these signings are still with me today, it was a real golden season for my scouts.
With the bolstering of these signings, and the collective experience of the squad, we dominated the Turkish 1.League with Burak Yesilay scoring an impressive 20 goals in 26 starts. Our victory made even sweeter with Adana D.S not making it past the play-offs.
Winning the Turkish 1. League 2021/2022
We were back baby, and this time we knew what we were doing. Without losing any of our talent whist improving our squad; perfecting our tactics; and Burak Yesilay proving he could score goals in the Turkish Super League, we safely landed a respectable a top half finish of 8th place. Our wage budget was still the lowest in the league by a mile, and with 12 wins and 9 draws, we were again beginning to build our financial strength.
Top Half Decency 2022/2023
The next season was a bitter sweet one. After funneling most of my budget into developing my Youth Recruitment and Development (I quickly learned that any half decent Turkish player isn't gonna sign for me), I had finally developed what I would call a once in a lifetime player. His name: Hasan Tatli. A Philip Lahm type, I knew I had a special one on my hands. He had quickly taken over as my first choice RBat just 17, but in January of that season I lost him for a record breaking 7.5 Million to Manchester City on deadline day. Since then, he's developed into pretty much the most promising right-back in the world. A testament to what we had built, I wish him well but would have loved to kept him for another year, especially as he's still only made one start for City in four years. I'm expecting a BIG cheque in the post when City do eventually sell him though.

Turkish Philip Lahm 2022/2023
Turkish Philip Lahm 2027/2028

So close to Europe 2023/2024
I ended up finishing 6th place, just outside of continental football and I knew I was almost ready to challenge for the league. Pumping more money into Youth Development from the Hasan Tatli funds, I spent smart, picking up kids with great potential from smaller teams, promising them a clear route into first team football. Most notable of those was 18 year old Orhan Akgun who I picked up from Bayern for a tiny 1.2 million. A fantastic advanced forward, he quickly took over as leading man and would later go on to become my recording breaking sale at his release clause of 17.25 million.
With these signings and a move from a 4-2-3-1 Wide Gengenpress (I know), to a 4-3-3 Tika-Taka saw me finally break into Europe, finishing 3rd in the league behind the big boys of Galatasaray & Fenerbahce. I scored a whopping 63 goals which was only outshined by Fenerbahce's 82 thanks to Amine Gouiri.
Also Besiktas, managed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, were relegated and are in financial ruin. You really love to see it.
Third place in The Turkish Super League 2024/2025
At this point in the save I should also mention I had taken over as Turkey's manager ahead of the World Cup of 2026. This was a great opportunity to keep tabs on the youth prospects of the country and also give some much needed international experience to some of my players.
In my head this was the season we would clinch it but we began to falter for various reasons. The media didn't think I couldn't handle the pressure of the Turkey job alongside my club responsibilities. For the first time since my second season at the club, my transfer policy had also been more miss than hit. Most of my signings failed to have an immediate impact, and my record breaking marquee signing of 6 million for Mezzala Omer Beyaz proved to be a bit of a flop. Most importantly, we were dealing with European football for the first time, and managed to get all the way into the Semi-Finals of the Euro Cup II at the first time of asking before being knocked out rather unfairly by compatriots Trabzonspor. We played 57 competitive games that season across three competitions, and we ended the season on a whimper, our players fatigued and injured, picking up just 2 points from our last five games and finishing 4th.
Disappointing in the Turkish Super League 2025/2026
After leading Turkey to a World Cup Semi-Final loss to Spain ( I still cannot believe I lost this match), I resigned with my head held high taking Turkey to their highest World Cup position since 2002 at third place. It was time to turn all my attention to Altınordu.
Turkey's 2026 World Cup Semi-Final exit at the hands of D.Martinez
Immediately I spotted the one weakness in my squad. A real solid DM Deep-Lying Playmaker. A Pirlo, to pull the strings. I had two choices, a young Turkish whippersnapper coming through the ranks at rival Antalyaspor, or Celil Yuksel a 28 year old, fairly obscure player languishing in recently relegated Buraspor's side. After a really bad amount of real life time umming and ahhing over who to sign, I decided to bite the bullet and "Moneyball it." Deep diving into their stats, I splashed the cash on Celil in a record breaking 8.5 Million roll of the dice. The press were shocked, the board baffled and the fans terrified. I'd lost the plot. But nobody was better at pass completion or key passes in the number of games he had played, and I was sure he was the man. My man. And by god I was right.
I forgot to get a screen-cap, but he lead the charts on key passes in the league, with a whopping 70 key passes by the end of the season, and a pass completion accuracy of 91%. He made it into the team of the season, he was our player and signing of the season and finished off with 3 goals, 4 assists and an average rating in the league of 7.29. He proved all the doubters wrong, and I couldn't be more proud.
Celil Yuksel - the moneyball gamble 2026/2027
I strengthened our squad depth too for squad rotation, knowing we again would be competing on the European front. This combined with some big youth prospects finally emerging as first team players (notably a 18 year old Ilhan Camak, a skillful winger who ended as our top scorer) meant we had a deep and talented group of players. Entering at the Second Playoff Round of the Euro Cup, we saw off Wolves to get into the group stages, and carried on strong in the league. By January we were top of the table, unbeaten in the league and qualifying top of our group in the Euro Cup II.
All of this success had drawn quite the attraction to my squad. At one point I think most of my players were wanted by various clubs from all over the world. The vultures circled and I lost my star Orhan Akgun to China via his release clause. I also cashed in on flop signing from the season before Omer Beyaz for a combined 28 million.
Transfer Dealings 2026/2027
First Half Of 2026/2017 Season - Unbeaten In The League
Losing Orhan Akgun was a blow so I quickly tried to fill in the squad with more talent, perhaps spending a bit too much on 17 year old Ergun Alkan (who so far has not got over a 6.2 when I play him). And with him leaving our form quickly deteriorated. Goals were now hard to come by and we somehow were embarrassed by an awful team at the bottom of the table to lose our unbeaten streak. We were then knocked out of Euro Cup II by Wolfsburg after a 93rd minute penalty. The wheels were coming off my perfect season.
With Galatasaray breathing down our neck it was getting down to the wire, but the season eventually turned around with an impressive 6-1destruction of them to basically bring it home to Altınordu for the first time in their history. I did lose the Turkish Cup to them, but honestly, I couldn't care less! We were the Champions of Turkey.
So there it is, the story of how I took a team built entirely of Turkish players to the top of the Turkish domestic ladder in seven seasons. Now, the Champions League!
Final League Table 2026/2027 (haha Besiktas again)
![img](lk25qw5rpwv51 "Second Half Of The Season Form 2026/2027 ")
The title winning squad of 2026/2027
Club Finances at the end of 2026/2027
Our all time best eleven at the end of 2026/2017
You can never please some people...
submitted by the_reddit_minstrel to footballmanagergames

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