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Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch (week 8 update, AND updated rookie rankings!)
7 weeks down - for a lot of us, that means our season is officially official - no take backs now!
Before the season started, I did a mildly popular [Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch] (and at the request of the community, I'll be doing weekly updates!In case you missed last week, you can find week 1 [here], week 2 [here], week 3 [here], week 4 here, week 5 here, week 6 here, and week 7 here.
Before I get into the report, I want to again remind you a little bit of how my methodology works - when I look at whom I consider to be the biggest risers and fallers, I put a few things into that determination:
01 Justin Jefferson (a down performance, but he drew Jaire for much of the day)
02 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
03 D'Andre Swift
04 JK Dobbins
05 James Robinson (at this point, we really need to be a bit more IN on the guy who is going to be the 2020 Rookie RB1 overall for points, barring injury)
06 CeeDee Lamb
07 Tee Higgins (trending towards WR2 with what looks like a really high floor week to week)
08 Jonathan Taylor
09 Antonio Gibson
10 Jerry Jeudy
11 Chase Claypool
12 Joe Burrow (1.01 in 2QB/SF)
13 Justin Herbert (2 in 2QB/SF)
14 Brandon Aiyuk
15 Jalen Reagor (trending up, I saw his performance!)
16 Henry Ruggs III
17 Laviska Shenault Jr.
18 Cam Akers
19 Denzel Mims
20 Tagovailoa (9 in 2QB, before Higgins)
21 Zach Moss
22 Michael Pittman Jr
23 Darnell Mooney
24 Bryan Edwards
25 AJ Dillon
26 La'Mical Perine
27 Gabriel Davis
28 JaMycal Hasty
29 Deejay Dallas
30 Ke'Shawn Vaughn
31 KJ Hamler
32 Joshua Kelley
33 Devin Duvernay
34 Tyler Johnson
35 Van Jefferson
36 Darrynton Evans
37 Collin Johnson
38 Marquez Callaway (debut on the list)
39 Quintez Cephus
40 Anthony McFarland Jr
41 Jordan Love (late 2nd in SF)
42 Antonio Gandy-Golden
TE Section (so no one asks why I have no TEs on here)
43 Harrison Bryant
44 Albert Okwuegbunam
45 Cole Kmet
46 Adam Trautman
Obligatory Kicker Shoutout:
47 Rodrigo Blankenship (although yikes, he missed 2 extra points)
More likely to end up in prison than starting for you in a Dynasty league: (an inside joke aimed at a guy who really loves Bowden and always asks me where I'd rank him - which is truthfully "late 4th at best".
48 Lynn Bowden Jr.
Last words:
Dobbins had the breakout game we were looking for, while we had a crash-and-burn-and-bench effort from JT. At this point, JT is going to have to prove me wrong with a great game, or I'm going to have to start believing the tape - he's playing like a worse version of Trent Richardson and is showing all the signs of a colossal bust at this point. I always advise against rage selling/taking a loss on a sale, but my gut says if you have someone who is still fully a believer in JT - you should definitely see what they're willing to pay. Of course, if all you can get is a late 1st, its better to ride out the storm. But what is most concerning about JT is that he's been given an opportunity few rookie backs are given, and in the process, he's ended up making Indy fans clamor for Reich to name Jordan Wilkins the starter. That terrifies me. On top of that, with his extremely difficult schedule over the next few weeks, I would not be surprised in the slightest if a month from now, we've observed 5 straight single digit performances from JT, and owners are hoping that 2021 and a full camp will breathe life back into their expensive fantasy asset. I hope the guy proves me wrong. He was my favorite rookie prospect in a long time.
I hope you folks continue to enjoy reading these as much as I enjoy reading your responses. Have a great week and drop me a message! :)
submitted by mogrimwarlock to DynastyFF
Before the season started, I did a mildly popular [Dynasty 2020 Rookie Stock Watch] (and at the request of the community, I'll be doing weekly updates!In case you missed last week, you can find week 1 [here], week 2 [here], week 3 [here], week 4 here, week 5 here, week 6 here, and week 7 here.
Before I get into the report, I want to again remind you a little bit of how my methodology works - when I look at whom I consider to be the biggest risers and fallers, I put a few things into that determination:
- I consider where I would now draft this player in a rookie draft. Dropping 2 spots from 20 to 22 is a lot less significant than dropping from 4 to 5. If a player drops a couple spots near the top, this often suggests a big loss in value because of the large value drop between pick 1.01 and 1.04. Even dropping from "in the conversation for 1.01" to "clearly 2 with no case at all for 1" is a more significant drop than 2-3 spots in the second round.
- 2. When I try to determine if a player has fallen, I like to weigh what some of the perceptions were on that player's upside, and if any of those perceptions appear to no longer be true or at least need to be tempered.
- 3. We absolutely need to weigh in what has changed with the likelihood of rookie-year opportunity. A huge factor in the value of rookies is this question: "What will they be worth before the 2021 season?" - and that question is highly impacted by volume and opportunity in year 1.
- 4. Just because I have someone as a riser or faller doesn't mean I think you should buy/sell them at bad value. It's the same concept as stocks - if you believe in the fundamentals of the company you invested in, you don't sell off after a bad week. Similarly, after a stock skyrockets is not usually the best time to buy in - you'd want to wait for a brief regression before that.
- 5. Like Matthew Berry has said - just because a guy is on my faller list doesn't mean I like them less than a guy on my riser list. This is just my evaluation of their value relative to where it was before this week. These are really just ****feel takes**** and will ebb and flow as the season goes on. Looking at the fluidity of my rankings should make that obvious.
Biggest Week 8 risers:
- Brandon Aiyuk. While I'm not going to stop beating the drum of skepticism related to Aiyuk's rise seeming to always correspond with injuries to the other talent, it doesn't change the fact that the rise has clearly happened. I have significant doubts as to the 49ers with injuries and if their long-term plan can really sustain 2 talented WRs as strong fantasy options - but those questions will be answered in time. At the present, we should relish in what Aiyuk is doing week to week.
- JK Dobbins. This was the performance owners have been waiting for. Dobbins translated 16 touches into over 120 yards in an extremely efficient outing against a solid Steelers team. This very well could be the game that jettisons JK into a majority share of the backfield going forward. But it's hard to really know how Baltimore will utilize their backfield on any given week. Considering the Gus Bus also looked good, its no sure bet that Dobbins will put up solid fantasy numbers in any given week - but a breakout performance absolutely is an encouraging sign for his long term value.
- Zach Moss. A really solid outing for Moss breathes a lot of life back into his value. While a 14/81 line isn't special, its a strong step forward. Of course, it's a near certainty that Moss scored the two touchdowns while on his owner's bench. Even so, we're rather encouraged to see Moss getting back into the running game and garnering significant work.
- DeeJay Dallas. Don't get me wrong - I don't want to overreact on this guy because he was extremely inefficient and didn't actually look great - 68 yards on 23 touches is dreadful efficiency. But he did find the endzone twice and this really bolsters him because of how low he was on the radar. I highly doubt he'll continue to get sustained work when the backfield returns to full health, but if there is a narrative where Dallas becomes a solid fantasy asset, a 2-touchdown game is a good place to start.
- Darnell Mooney. His best performance of the year pushes him back into the riser field. He had a nice score against the Saints and appears to be developing into a reliable option. He's a definite solid stash now, and owners who grabbed him late in rookie drafts (or off the free agent wire) should be especially looking at Mooney as a chance to breakout in 2021 if ARob heads elsewhere in the off season.
Biggest Week 8 fallers:
- Jonathan Taylor. This one hurts. Taylor's dud performance against a bad Detroit d-line is one of those narrative-shattering performances. For a few reasons. First, Indy RBs and runners (including Trey Burton's run) put up 50+ points against the Lions, and Taylor only contributed 5 - and looked bad doing it. On the flipside, Jordan Wilkins ran like a man with an opportunity to secure a starting role on the team. While I don't think Wilkins will hold the job for long, Indy has 4 difficult matchups in a row going forward, and it is difficult to project that the Colts will continue to allow JT to run straight into the back of his lineman as the schedule tightens and wins become even more crucial. Taylor was my 1.01 on talent, and debatable with CEH due to landing spot. I no longer believe the talent is there.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Don't freak out, but CEH's ROS looks to be pretty sketchy. If nothing else, that factors in because part of his value built in the fact that he would have solid year 1 return - and whatever he provided before week 8, it looks like CEH is going to be a lot harder to trust down the stretch. I'm sure he'll still have solid outings, but Bell's going to get significant work in this backfield for 2020, and CEH is going to put up some surprise duds in between his okayish 12-18 point games. Odds are if you own CEH, you weren't a great team anyhow, but if you acquired him in a win-now situation, it hurts more. Don't stress too much though - 2021 is coming.
- CeeDee Lamb. Lamb's production continues to dip in the post-Dak Dallas, and it remains difficult to predict him having solid outings on an offense that changed from high scoring and exciting to absolutely abysmal. I think the talent is absolutely there, but we're going to have a hard time observing it definitively the rest of the year. This really leaves a lot of room for other WRs to fill the voice and provide a large sample size of success which will combine with Lamb's uncertainty to suppress his value a bit.
- Tua Tagovailoa. A mixed-effort and a fantasy clunker pours a bit of cold water on Tua winning his first NFL start. Miami did not look strong on offense at all, and while Tua had some moments, it was the Miami Defense that really sparkled. Tua's first start was a worse fantasy outing than any by Burrow or Herbert so far (although pretty much a tie with the one bad Burrow outing against Baltimore). This is more of a faller because we've been spoiled by the other two rookie QBs, so it was hard not to have high hopes for Tua's first start. Obviously way too early to draw conclusions from this - especially when the rookie came back looking okay after getting crushed on his first drive and lost a fumble.
- Henry Ruggs. Back-to-back weeks in the faller spot, Ruggs is simply not getting volume in the Raiders offense. The week 1 script of forcing Ruggs to get unique usage seems to have been scrapped for a more traditional West Coast Offense script of dinking and dunking underneath - which is not a strong point for Ruggs. He serves a very useful role on the offense, as a deep threat that presses safeties and corners back (which allows the rest of the Oakland offense an extra half yard of space on average) - but so far that isn't translating into fantasy value.
How I rank them right now
(in 1QB, but I will include where I would bump the QBs up to in 2QB)
01 Justin Jefferson (a down performance, but he drew Jaire for much of the day)
02 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
03 D'Andre Swift
04 JK Dobbins
05 James Robinson (at this point, we really need to be a bit more IN on the guy who is going to be the 2020 Rookie RB1 overall for points, barring injury)
06 CeeDee Lamb
07 Tee Higgins (trending towards WR2 with what looks like a really high floor week to week)
08 Jonathan Taylor
09 Antonio Gibson
10 Jerry Jeudy
11 Chase Claypool
12 Joe Burrow (1.01 in 2QB/SF)
13 Justin Herbert (2 in 2QB/SF)
14 Brandon Aiyuk
15 Jalen Reagor (trending up, I saw his performance!)
16 Henry Ruggs III
17 Laviska Shenault Jr.
18 Cam Akers
19 Denzel Mims
20 Tagovailoa (9 in 2QB, before Higgins)
21 Zach Moss
22 Michael Pittman Jr
23 Darnell Mooney
24 Bryan Edwards
25 AJ Dillon
26 La'Mical Perine
27 Gabriel Davis
28 JaMycal Hasty
29 Deejay Dallas
30 Ke'Shawn Vaughn
31 KJ Hamler
32 Joshua Kelley
33 Devin Duvernay
34 Tyler Johnson
35 Van Jefferson
36 Darrynton Evans
37 Collin Johnson
38 Marquez Callaway (debut on the list)
39 Quintez Cephus
40 Anthony McFarland Jr
41 Jordan Love (late 2nd in SF)
42 Antonio Gandy-Golden
TE Section (so no one asks why I have no TEs on here)
43 Harrison Bryant
44 Albert Okwuegbunam
45 Cole Kmet
46 Adam Trautman
Obligatory Kicker Shoutout:
47 Rodrigo Blankenship (although yikes, he missed 2 extra points)
More likely to end up in prison than starting for you in a Dynasty league: (an inside joke aimed at a guy who really loves Bowden and always asks me where I'd rank him - which is truthfully "late 4th at best".
48 Lynn Bowden Jr.
Last words:
Dobbins had the breakout game we were looking for, while we had a crash-and-burn-and-bench effort from JT. At this point, JT is going to have to prove me wrong with a great game, or I'm going to have to start believing the tape - he's playing like a worse version of Trent Richardson and is showing all the signs of a colossal bust at this point. I always advise against rage selling/taking a loss on a sale, but my gut says if you have someone who is still fully a believer in JT - you should definitely see what they're willing to pay. Of course, if all you can get is a late 1st, its better to ride out the storm. But what is most concerning about JT is that he's been given an opportunity few rookie backs are given, and in the process, he's ended up making Indy fans clamor for Reich to name Jordan Wilkins the starter. That terrifies me. On top of that, with his extremely difficult schedule over the next few weeks, I would not be surprised in the slightest if a month from now, we've observed 5 straight single digit performances from JT, and owners are hoping that 2021 and a full camp will breathe life back into their expensive fantasy asset. I hope the guy proves me wrong. He was my favorite rookie prospect in a long time.
I hope you folks continue to enjoy reading these as much as I enjoy reading your responses. Have a great week and drop me a message! :)
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